Win-Loss and Hitting Stats

stats

HITTERS – OPS in Wins versus OPS in Losses

Baseball Reference has a neat little measurement within the “Splits” for each player.  The “Game Outcome for Team” split compares how well each player hit during Dodgers wins as opposed to during Dodgers losses.  The following shows the OPS (On-base percentage Plus Slugging percentage) during wins, during losses, and the differential.

Chris Taylor .971-.798=.173
Corey Seager 1.000-.659=.341
Justin Turner 1.072-.750=.322
Cody Bellinger 1.043-.716=.327
Logan Forsythe .791-.331=.460
Yasmani Grandal .801-.781=.020
Joc Pederson .874-.421=.453
Yasiel Puig .887-.558=.329
Austin Barnes .996-.719=.277
Kike Hernandez .800-.683=.117
Chase Utley .856-.431=.425
Adrian Gonzalez .737-.445=.292

What does all of this mean?  What is the cause and effect?  For some clues, let’s look at the career differential for some veterans who have played for other teams:

Justin Turner .926-.689=.237
Logan Forsythe .810-.622=.188
Yasmani Grandal .869-.656=.213
Chase Utley .951-.678=.273
Adrian Gonzalez .953-.723=.230

Now what does it all mean?  I don’t know, so I’m going to start making stuff up.  Please challenge me on my conclusions, then we’ll get to a better place together.

First of all, it makes sense that when offensive players are doing well, the team will win games, and vice versa.  So if the position player has a big role with the team, his differential will likely be high.  Utley and Gonzalez have filled these roles historically and their career differentials average about .250.   Seager, Turner, and Bellinger all fall into this make-up.

Chris Taylor’s differential is lower than the other top four guys in the lineup.  I think that’s because a lead-off hitter only contributes (mostly) by getting on base, not driving in runs.  So the lead-off hitter has less opportunity to influence the game outcome.

I think this team has won so much, due to the top four hitters in the lineup, but also because guys lower in the lineup have done well for the team.  This includes Puig, Pederson, and Forsythe.  Logan Forsythe has hit well against left-handers, although certainly not against right-handers.  Joc Pederson was doing great up through the end of July, but then fell off the horse more recently.  Speaking of horses, the Wild Horse has done well low in the lineup.

The anomaly in all of the above is Yasmani Grandal.  Why is his Won/Loss differential almost zero?  I don’t know.  Maybe because he is such a streaky hitter.  He’s either on or he’s off.

Dodgers Run

Cody Bellinger, Yasiel Puig, Justin Turner

Did the Dodgers somehow become a different team after June 6, 2017?  Let’s look at some facts and some numbers.  Chris Taylor was called up from AAA on April 19th.  The Dodgers were 7-8.  The Dodgers then beat the Rockies 4-2 with Taylor hitting two doubles in three at-bats from the eighth batting position.

Cody Bellinger joined the team on April 25th, when the Dodgers were 9-11.  Dodger4life christened Bellinger as “Bombay”.  Later that night, the Dodgers beat the Giants 2-1, and Bombay had a quiet 1-3 night with a single and a walk, batting in the eighth position.

Justin Turner went on the disabled list from May 19th through June 8th.  The Dodgers were 24-18 after May 18th and 36-25 on June 8th.  So the Dodgers were able to go 12-7 without Justin Turner (somehow!).  When Big Red came back on June 9th, the Dodgers were just two wins into their current Red-Hot streak of 46-8.

Chris, Cody, and Justin have teamed up with Corey Seager to make up the best 1-2-3-4 hitters in any lineup that I can remember.  Just for ha-ha’s, here are their offensive numbers (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/OPS+ with homeruns) prior to tonight’s game:

Chris Taylor .308/.375/.547/.922/139 with 16 homers
Corey Seager .307/.399/.525/.925/141 with 19 homers
Justin Turner .348/.441/.561/1.002/162 with 15 homers
Cody Bombay Bellinger .263/.340/.609/.949/142 with 33 homers

Note that OPS+ compare’s the player’s OPS to the league’s OPS – an OPS+ of 100 is league-average.

Just for ha-ha’s again, here were the 1-2-3-4 hitters for the 1927 Bronx Bombers:

Earle Combs .356/.414/.511/.925/141 with 6 homers
Mark Koenig .285/.320/.382/.702/83 with 3 homers
Babe Ruth .356/.486/.772/1.258/225 with 60 homers
Lou Gehrig .373/.474/.765/1.240/220 with 47 homers
Yikes!  Those 3-4 hitters – who are those guys?

Now add Yasiel Puig as the best #8 hitter in the MLB.  Then add the Dodgers pitching which is leading the NL.  This is why the Dodgers have almost forgotten how to lose.

Let’s look at the Dodgers won-loss records by month for their possible best season ever:

April 14-12
May 19-9
June 21-7
July 20-3
August 7-2 (incomplete)
September ???

Here is the Dodgers’ won-loss record at home versus on the road during their Red-Hot streak:

Home 26-3
Road 20-5

You know, the Dodgers were just not satisfied with their 42-8 streak in 2013, winning 84% of 50 games.  So they had to go on their 2017 Red-Hot streak of 46-8, winning 85% of 54 games.  Oh yeah, it’s not over yet.  They are home for the next five games against the Padres (3 games) and the White Sox (2 games).  The Red-Hot streak continues…

Twins Game Two

Last night, the Dodgers returned to their ways of pulling a victory from the jaws of defeat.  This is not the team of Don Mattingly.  This is the team of Doc Roberts, the communicator, the motivator.  This is the team of Chris Taylor, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, and Cody Bellinger.  Those top four hitters (amongst others) never say die and keep on hitting late into the ballgame.  This is the team of Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen, who consistently lay everything on the line to win a ballgame.

Kenta Maeda (R) will be starting against Jose Berrios (R) in the second game of the Dodgers series with the Twins.

Angels – Dodgers in the O.C.

angels of anaheim

Tonight, the Freeway Series moves to Anaheim.  That’s in Orange County.  It’s not in Los Angeles.  It’s not even in Los Angeles County.  It’s Anaheim.  So call yourselves the California Angels or the Anaheim Angels, already.  Or the Orange Angels, if you wish.

Tonight Hyun-Jin Ryu goes up against Alex Meyer.  Will Corey Seager or Justin Turner or Yasiel Puig be ready for this one?  We’ll just have to wait for the lineup to come out.

Joc Pederson seems to be ready.  He’s been on an offensive tear of late.  Of course, Cody Bombay Bellinger is always ready.

Big Rockies Series

Every time the Dodgers travel to Denver, we wonder how the Dodgers will outhit the Rockies at the mile-high stadium.  But this time, the Rockies have to be wondering whether they can keep up with the Dodgers’ three home run per game pace.

Crystal Blue Chris Taylor

crystal_blue

Got a new player
Traded for Zach Lee
The offense is rising
Most definitely
A World Series is coming, ooh ooh
Roster is changing
Ain’t it beautiful, ooh, ooh
Crystal Blue Chris Taylor
Better get ready to play the youth
Youth, youth is the answer, ooh, ooh
And that’s the truth
So get rid of PVL’s, ooh ooh
So easy to do
Put them in the bowl
And just flush the poo
Crystal Blue Chris Taylor, mmm, mmm
Plays with Corey and Cody
Crystal Blue Chris Taylor
 Crystal Blue Chris Taylor
May it be this fall,
They lead the team
On every green field, ooh ooh
In every town
All of his teammates
Dodger Blue Nation
We’ll have a seventh shiny Trophy
Crystal Blue Chris Taylor, yeah
Crystal Blue Chris Taylor, aha
Crystal Blue Chris Taylor, aha
Crystal Blue Chris Taylor, aha

Slow Start

slowride

It’s been a slow start to the season.  The Dodgers have won four of seven and currently sit in third place.  One-fifth of the original starting rotation (Rich Hill) is already on the DL.  That’s him at the top of the page.  Clayton Kershaw gave up three home runs in one game including back to back home runs.  Never happened before.

Hitting left handed pitchers is still a problem.  The Dodgers lost two of three games in which the opposition started a left handed pitcher.

The offense has shown both signs of strength (lots of homers, especially Yasiel Puig, Corey Seager, and Yasmani Grandal) and signs of ineptitude (shut out once, scored one run once, and scored two runs once).  Seager has already made a couple of errors in the field, likely due to too little time on the Spring Training field.  Puig has already committed at least two TOOTBLAN’s (Thrown Out On The Basepaths Like A Nincompoop).  The first was an outright TOOTBLAN, when he tried to steal third base with two outs and down by three runs.  The second was a head scratching TOOTBLAN, when he was doubled off first base, because he didn’t see the umpire signal that Gonzalez’ single was a trap and not a catch.

Tonight (at 5:05 pm PDT / 8:05 EDT), the Dodgers bring their slow starting team into Chicago to play the World Championship Cubs.