Win-Loss and Hitting Stats

stats

HITTERS – OPS in Wins versus OPS in Losses

Baseball Reference has a neat little measurement within the “Splits” for each player.  The “Game Outcome for Team” split compares how well each player hit during Dodgers wins as opposed to during Dodgers losses.  The following shows the OPS (On-base percentage Plus Slugging percentage) during wins, during losses, and the differential.

Chris Taylor .971-.798=.173
Corey Seager 1.000-.659=.341
Justin Turner 1.072-.750=.322
Cody Bellinger 1.043-.716=.327
Logan Forsythe .791-.331=.460
Yasmani Grandal .801-.781=.020
Joc Pederson .874-.421=.453
Yasiel Puig .887-.558=.329
Austin Barnes .996-.719=.277
Kike Hernandez .800-.683=.117
Chase Utley .856-.431=.425
Adrian Gonzalez .737-.445=.292

What does all of this mean?  What is the cause and effect?  For some clues, let’s look at the career differential for some veterans who have played for other teams:

Justin Turner .926-.689=.237
Logan Forsythe .810-.622=.188
Yasmani Grandal .869-.656=.213
Chase Utley .951-.678=.273
Adrian Gonzalez .953-.723=.230

Now what does it all mean?  I don’t know, so I’m going to start making stuff up.  Please challenge me on my conclusions, then we’ll get to a better place together.

First of all, it makes sense that when offensive players are doing well, the team will win games, and vice versa.  So if the position player has a big role with the team, his differential will likely be high.  Utley and Gonzalez have filled these roles historically and their career differentials average about .250.   Seager, Turner, and Bellinger all fall into this make-up.

Chris Taylor’s differential is lower than the other top four guys in the lineup.  I think that’s because a lead-off hitter only contributes (mostly) by getting on base, not driving in runs.  So the lead-off hitter has less opportunity to influence the game outcome.

I think this team has won so much, due to the top four hitters in the lineup, but also because guys lower in the lineup have done well for the team.  This includes Puig, Pederson, and Forsythe.  Logan Forsythe has hit well against left-handers, although certainly not against right-handers.  Joc Pederson was doing great up through the end of July, but then fell off the horse more recently.  Speaking of horses, the Wild Horse has done well low in the lineup.

The anomaly in all of the above is Yasmani Grandal.  Why is his Won/Loss differential almost zero?  I don’t know.  Maybe because he is such a streaky hitter.  He’s either on or he’s off.

Brock Brock

BrockBrock

Brock Brock ‘Em, Rock Rock ‘Em, Sock Sock ‘Em, Block Block ‘Em, Clock Clock ‘Em, Hock Hock ‘Em, Lock Lock ‘Em, Pock Pock ‘Em, Knock Knock ‘Em, Spock Spock ‘Em, Tick Tock ‘Em, Chock Chock ‘Em, Mock Mock ‘Em, Shock Shock ‘Em, Joc Joc ‘Em, Doc Doc ‘Em, just don’t Walk Walk ‘Em!

In Brock Stewart’s latest start, he was crippled by the errors committed by the defense around him.  His ERA in 2017 is still an unblemished 0.00.  His WHIP is a low 0.840, having given up just ten hits and four walks in 16 2/3 innings.

If you cannot discern Brock Brock in the above picture, he is the one in blue on the left.

 

Hot in Atlanta

atlanta

The Dodgers bring their red-hot team to Atlanta for a three game series.  They also bring their newly acquired starting pitcher, Yu Darvish, who last pitched on July 26th for the Texas Rangers.  Yu Darvish will have his first Dodgers start on Friday in New York City against the Mets.

Tonight’s game features Kenta Maeda against rookie Lucas Sims, who gets his first major league start tonight against the Dodgers.  Sims is a 23 year old right hander who has posted a 1.136 WHIP in AAA this year.

The Dodgers’ road record is 27-18, as opposed to their record of 47-13 while playing at Chavez Ravine.

Have Fun & Rally On

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Won 2

Rally On…

Julio Urias got the job done in game one of the Milwaukee Brewers series.  He was not helped by one Pedro Baez.  He was helped by one heroic catch by Joc Pederson.  Now it’s fellow rookie Brock Stewart’s turn to show us what he has got.

From yesterday’s fun:

griz said:  “At this rate they’ll have to let Ned out of his closet so he can resume dumpster diving.”

Beav said: “I still wish they’d throw in the towel and go whole hog into the youth movement though.”

JhallWally said:  “I’d like to give our FO an enema. They are full of shit.”

messagebear said:  “I’d settle for two good prospects; one who can actually hit for some power and preferably be a catcher, the other a starting pitcher who’s not had a Tommy John surgery already and isn’t on the verge of one.”

koufax1963 wrote a song:  

Id like to see the dugout in harmony
No squabbles with Puig to see
No injuries, swollen knee and all are pain free
On the bench Turner can jaw at Grandal
But on the field somebody has to call for the foul ball
The Dodgers as a team are not living the dream
Although FAZ is trying to make it seem
We all know this is not the real thing

lbirken had a lot to say – see yesterday’s post for his discussion of the front office and the 2016 Dodgers.

messagebear told the front office where to get off

jhallWally said “3 for 14 with RISP. UNACCEPTABLE!!!And unsustainable if you hope to contend for a playoff or championship…”

he added “Why is Baez still on this team. The dude sucks like a Dyson…”

Meanwhile, I’m not sure what the lineup will look like with Joc Pederson taking a rest day or two or four to let his bruised shoulder heal up.  I think (unless I didn’t count right) that puts us at zero able-bodied left handed hitting outfielders.  Get well soon, Joc.  Get well soon, Andre.

‘Twas nice to see Grandal get two RBI’s yesterday, but he still went 0-5 with four ground-balls (one for a double play) and a strikeout.  This dude is not right.  We traded away Matt Kemp and we got a catcher who hits .178.

Anyways, good luck to the Dodgers and good luck to Brock Stewart!  May he get his first major league Win and his first major league hit!  Follow Julio’s lead!

Move Over Julio, Here’s Brock Stewart

brockstewart

Julio Urias is no longer the New Kid on the Block.  That title now goes to Brock Stewart, who will get his first major league start on Wednesday in Milwaukee facing the Brewers.

Brock Allen Stewart was drafted by Dodgers in the sixth round of 2014. He was originally drafted by the Mets in 2010 in the 40th round straight out of high school, but Stewart elected to go to college at Illinois State University.  He started out as a third baseman.  The coach of the team was his dad, Jeff Stewart.  Brock converted to a pitcher during his senior year of college (2013/2014 college year).

After the Dodgers drafted him in 2014, Brock pitched okay, but not great in 2014 and 2015 in the minors (WHIPs of 1.544 and 1.358, respectively).

In 2016, Stewart sports a WHIP of 0.826 and has rocketed up from A+ to AA Tulsa to AAA OKC. He’s a right hander, and Geez we know we don’t have many good right handed starting pitchers, so here’s looking forward to his first MLB start in Milwaukee on Wednesday.