Win-Loss and Hitting Stats

stats

HITTERS – OPS in Wins versus OPS in Losses

Baseball Reference has a neat little measurement within the “Splits” for each player.  The “Game Outcome for Team” split compares how well each player hit during Dodgers wins as opposed to during Dodgers losses.  The following shows the OPS (On-base percentage Plus Slugging percentage) during wins, during losses, and the differential.

Chris Taylor .971-.798=.173
Corey Seager 1.000-.659=.341
Justin Turner 1.072-.750=.322
Cody Bellinger 1.043-.716=.327
Logan Forsythe .791-.331=.460
Yasmani Grandal .801-.781=.020
Joc Pederson .874-.421=.453
Yasiel Puig .887-.558=.329
Austin Barnes .996-.719=.277
Kike Hernandez .800-.683=.117
Chase Utley .856-.431=.425
Adrian Gonzalez .737-.445=.292

What does all of this mean?  What is the cause and effect?  For some clues, let’s look at the career differential for some veterans who have played for other teams:

Justin Turner .926-.689=.237
Logan Forsythe .810-.622=.188
Yasmani Grandal .869-.656=.213
Chase Utley .951-.678=.273
Adrian Gonzalez .953-.723=.230

Now what does it all mean?  I don’t know, so I’m going to start making stuff up.  Please challenge me on my conclusions, then we’ll get to a better place together.

First of all, it makes sense that when offensive players are doing well, the team will win games, and vice versa.  So if the position player has a big role with the team, his differential will likely be high.  Utley and Gonzalez have filled these roles historically and their career differentials average about .250.   Seager, Turner, and Bellinger all fall into this make-up.

Chris Taylor’s differential is lower than the other top four guys in the lineup.  I think that’s because a lead-off hitter only contributes (mostly) by getting on base, not driving in runs.  So the lead-off hitter has less opportunity to influence the game outcome.

I think this team has won so much, due to the top four hitters in the lineup, but also because guys lower in the lineup have done well for the team.  This includes Puig, Pederson, and Forsythe.  Logan Forsythe has hit well against left-handers, although certainly not against right-handers.  Joc Pederson was doing great up through the end of July, but then fell off the horse more recently.  Speaking of horses, the Wild Horse has done well low in the lineup.

The anomaly in all of the above is Yasmani Grandal.  Why is his Won/Loss differential almost zero?  I don’t know.  Maybe because he is such a streaky hitter.  He’s either on or he’s off.

Dodgers Run

Cody Bellinger, Yasiel Puig, Justin Turner

Did the Dodgers somehow become a different team after June 6, 2017?  Let’s look at some facts and some numbers.  Chris Taylor was called up from AAA on April 19th.  The Dodgers were 7-8.  The Dodgers then beat the Rockies 4-2 with Taylor hitting two doubles in three at-bats from the eighth batting position.

Cody Bellinger joined the team on April 25th, when the Dodgers were 9-11.  Dodger4life christened Bellinger as “Bombay”.  Later that night, the Dodgers beat the Giants 2-1, and Bombay had a quiet 1-3 night with a single and a walk, batting in the eighth position.

Justin Turner went on the disabled list from May 19th through June 8th.  The Dodgers were 24-18 after May 18th and 36-25 on June 8th.  So the Dodgers were able to go 12-7 without Justin Turner (somehow!).  When Big Red came back on June 9th, the Dodgers were just two wins into their current Red-Hot streak of 46-8.

Chris, Cody, and Justin have teamed up with Corey Seager to make up the best 1-2-3-4 hitters in any lineup that I can remember.  Just for ha-ha’s, here are their offensive numbers (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/OPS+ with homeruns) prior to tonight’s game:

Chris Taylor .308/.375/.547/.922/139 with 16 homers
Corey Seager .307/.399/.525/.925/141 with 19 homers
Justin Turner .348/.441/.561/1.002/162 with 15 homers
Cody Bombay Bellinger .263/.340/.609/.949/142 with 33 homers

Note that OPS+ compare’s the player’s OPS to the league’s OPS – an OPS+ of 100 is league-average.

Just for ha-ha’s again, here were the 1-2-3-4 hitters for the 1927 Bronx Bombers:

Earle Combs .356/.414/.511/.925/141 with 6 homers
Mark Koenig .285/.320/.382/.702/83 with 3 homers
Babe Ruth .356/.486/.772/1.258/225 with 60 homers
Lou Gehrig .373/.474/.765/1.240/220 with 47 homers
Yikes!  Those 3-4 hitters – who are those guys?

Now add Yasiel Puig as the best #8 hitter in the MLB.  Then add the Dodgers pitching which is leading the NL.  This is why the Dodgers have almost forgotten how to lose.

Let’s look at the Dodgers won-loss records by month for their possible best season ever:

April 14-12
May 19-9
June 21-7
July 20-3
August 7-2 (incomplete)
September ???

Here is the Dodgers’ won-loss record at home versus on the road during their Red-Hot streak:

Home 26-3
Road 20-5

You know, the Dodgers were just not satisfied with their 42-8 streak in 2013, winning 84% of 50 games.  So they had to go on their 2017 Red-Hot streak of 46-8, winning 85% of 54 games.  Oh yeah, it’s not over yet.  They are home for the next five games against the Padres (3 games) and the White Sox (2 games).  The Red-Hot streak continues…

Battle of Lefties

Tonight, we’ve got a battle of two left handed pitchers, Alex Wood versus Sean Newcomb.  Wood is arguably the Dodgers’ second best starting pitcher with a record of 12-1 and an ERA of 2.38.  Over his most recent thirteen starts, he has won eleven, lost one, and had one no-decision.  Newcomb, age 24, is in his rookie season with the Braves, having pitched nine starts with a record of 1-5, ERA of 4.50.

 

Meanwhile, carry on with the discussion of Jamie McCourt.  Here’s her house in Napa.

jamie napa house

Brock Brock

BrockBrock

Brock Brock ‘Em, Rock Rock ‘Em, Sock Sock ‘Em, Block Block ‘Em, Clock Clock ‘Em, Hock Hock ‘Em, Lock Lock ‘Em, Pock Pock ‘Em, Knock Knock ‘Em, Spock Spock ‘Em, Tick Tock ‘Em, Chock Chock ‘Em, Mock Mock ‘Em, Shock Shock ‘Em, Joc Joc ‘Em, Doc Doc ‘Em, just don’t Walk Walk ‘Em!

In Brock Stewart’s latest start, he was crippled by the errors committed by the defense around him.  His ERA in 2017 is still an unblemished 0.00.  His WHIP is a low 0.840, having given up just ten hits and four walks in 16 2/3 innings.

If you cannot discern Brock Brock in the above picture, he is the one in blue on the left.

 

Hot in Atlanta

atlanta

The Dodgers bring their red-hot team to Atlanta for a three game series.  They also bring their newly acquired starting pitcher, Yu Darvish, who last pitched on July 26th for the Texas Rangers.  Yu Darvish will have his first Dodgers start on Friday in New York City against the Mets.

Tonight’s game features Kenta Maeda against rookie Lucas Sims, who gets his first major league start tonight against the Dodgers.  Sims is a 23 year old right hander who has posted a 1.136 WHIP in AAA this year.

The Dodgers’ road record is 27-18, as opposed to their record of 47-13 while playing at Chavez Ravine.

DEADLINE DAY

Major League Baseballs Non Waiver Trade Deadline Ends At 4PM ET

Will Darvish, Verlander or Gray, fly to Atlanta to join the Dodgers in the coming hours?

Could a reliever weigh heavily on the minds of the front-office?

If so…what type of prospects and or other pieces will be exchanged?

Will they fore-go a bullpen arm and call up Walker Buehler to assist the club?

Will they add another bat to the mix?

Do they even need to do something big that requires top prospects?

I’ve read that…

Darvish may require top prospects

Verlander will cost money/prospects

Gray will require a battle with the Yankees

 

Hang on to your caps today folks…A storm may be brewing!!

 

Maeda vs. White Sox

Maeda_road

Tonight, Kenta Maeda of the Dodgers goes up against Carlos Rodon (L) of the White Sox.  Whether it’s fair or not, Kenta will need more help from the Dodgers offense than what Clayton Kershaw got last night.  Tonight’s lineup features the right-handed side of certain platoons:

1. Chris Taylor (R) LF
2. Corey Seager (L) SS
3. Justin Turner (R) DH
4. Cody Bellinger (L) 1B
5. Logan Forsythe (R) 2B
6. Austin Barnes (R) C
8. Yasiel Puig (R) RF
9. Trayce Thompson (R) CF

 

Meanwhile, the Dodgers success just keeps rolling along:

  • Dodgers are now 2 games above the Astros for World Series home advantage.
  • 30-4 over the last 34 games.  The last time that happened in the MLB was in 1977 with the Kansas City Royals.  The last time it happened in the NL was 1936 with the New York Giants.
  • Lost to an NL opponent once in the past 34 games.
  • 56-18 since Cody Bellinger joined the club.
  • 40-6 when both Justin Turner and Cody Bellinger start the game.
  • 29-4 since Justin Turner came off the disabled list.
  • Swept eleven series this year, including the last three straight.
  • Won ten straight going into tonight’s game.