Win-Loss and Hitting Stats

stats

HITTERS – OPS in Wins versus OPS in Losses

Baseball Reference has a neat little measurement within the “Splits” for each player.  The “Game Outcome for Team” split compares how well each player hit during Dodgers wins as opposed to during Dodgers losses.  The following shows the OPS (On-base percentage Plus Slugging percentage) during wins, during losses, and the differential.

Chris Taylor .971-.798=.173
Corey Seager 1.000-.659=.341
Justin Turner 1.072-.750=.322
Cody Bellinger 1.043-.716=.327
Logan Forsythe .791-.331=.460
Yasmani Grandal .801-.781=.020
Joc Pederson .874-.421=.453
Yasiel Puig .887-.558=.329
Austin Barnes .996-.719=.277
Kike Hernandez .800-.683=.117
Chase Utley .856-.431=.425
Adrian Gonzalez .737-.445=.292

What does all of this mean?  What is the cause and effect?  For some clues, let’s look at the career differential for some veterans who have played for other teams:

Justin Turner .926-.689=.237
Logan Forsythe .810-.622=.188
Yasmani Grandal .869-.656=.213
Chase Utley .951-.678=.273
Adrian Gonzalez .953-.723=.230

Now what does it all mean?  I don’t know, so I’m going to start making stuff up.  Please challenge me on my conclusions, then we’ll get to a better place together.

First of all, it makes sense that when offensive players are doing well, the team will win games, and vice versa.  So if the position player has a big role with the team, his differential will likely be high.  Utley and Gonzalez have filled these roles historically and their career differentials average about .250.   Seager, Turner, and Bellinger all fall into this make-up.

Chris Taylor’s differential is lower than the other top four guys in the lineup.  I think that’s because a lead-off hitter only contributes (mostly) by getting on base, not driving in runs.  So the lead-off hitter has less opportunity to influence the game outcome.

I think this team has won so much, due to the top four hitters in the lineup, but also because guys lower in the lineup have done well for the team.  This includes Puig, Pederson, and Forsythe.  Logan Forsythe has hit well against left-handers, although certainly not against right-handers.  Joc Pederson was doing great up through the end of July, but then fell off the horse more recently.  Speaking of horses, the Wild Horse has done well low in the lineup.

The anomaly in all of the above is Yasmani Grandal.  Why is his Won/Loss differential almost zero?  I don’t know.  Maybe because he is such a streaky hitter.  He’s either on or he’s off.

Anatomy of the Streak

baseball_anatomy

Here’s more information about how the Dodgers became the red-hot 2017 Dodgers.  Again, the Wins/Losses by month:

April 14-12
May 19-9
June 21-7
July 20-3
August 11-3 Total 2017 85-34

Starting on June 7th, the Dodgers have run off a streak of 50-9, at a pace of winning 85% of 59 games.  They have not lost a series since losing the June 5-7 series at home to the Washington Nationals.  So what changed?  Who is in and who is out, when, and what’s the Dodgers record since?

Chris Taylor joined the 25-man roster on April 19th; the Dodgers are 78-26 since then.

Alex Wood moved from the bullpen to the starting rotation on April 21st; the Dodgers are 77-26 since then.

Cody Bellinger was promoted on April 25th; the Dodgers are 76-23 since then.

Andrew Toles went on the disabled list on May 9th; the Dodgers are 66-20 since then.

Hyun-Jin Ryu pitched a stellar relief game on May 25th; the Dodgers are 58-14 since then (including the May 25th game).

Adrian Gonzalez went on the disabled list (the second time) on June 11th; the Dodgers are 46-9 since then.

Rich Hill was bad early in the season, and he turned it around after June 15th.  Through June 15th, he was 3-3 with a 5.14 ERA and a 1.657 WHIP.  After June 15th, he is 5-1 with a 2.33 ERA and a 0.963 WHIP.  The Dodgers are 44-8 since June 15th.

Chris Hatcher was put on the disabled list after the June 22nd game; the Dodgers are 37-8 since then.

Sergio Romo’s last bullpen appearance was July 8th; the Dodgers are 25-5 since then.

Cody Bellinger had a strong showing in the Home Run Derby on July 10th; the Dodgers are 24-5 since then.

Brandon McCarthy was put on the disabled list on July 20th; the Dodgers are 19-4 since then.

Sergio Romo was traded to the Rays on July 22nd; the Dodgers are 19-3 since then.

Clayton Kershaw went on the disabled list on July 23rd; the Dodgers are 17-3 since then.

Yu Darvish was acquired in a trade on July 31st; the Dodgers are 11-3 since then.

Chris Hatcher was traded to the A’s on August 15th, the Dodgers are 2-0 since then.

Dodgers Run

Cody Bellinger, Yasiel Puig, Justin Turner

Did the Dodgers somehow become a different team after June 6, 2017?  Let’s look at some facts and some numbers.  Chris Taylor was called up from AAA on April 19th.  The Dodgers were 7-8.  The Dodgers then beat the Rockies 4-2 with Taylor hitting two doubles in three at-bats from the eighth batting position.

Cody Bellinger joined the team on April 25th, when the Dodgers were 9-11.  Dodger4life christened Bellinger as “Bombay”.  Later that night, the Dodgers beat the Giants 2-1, and Bombay had a quiet 1-3 night with a single and a walk, batting in the eighth position.

Justin Turner went on the disabled list from May 19th through June 8th.  The Dodgers were 24-18 after May 18th and 36-25 on June 8th.  So the Dodgers were able to go 12-7 without Justin Turner (somehow!).  When Big Red came back on June 9th, the Dodgers were just two wins into their current Red-Hot streak of 46-8.

Chris, Cody, and Justin have teamed up with Corey Seager to make up the best 1-2-3-4 hitters in any lineup that I can remember.  Just for ha-ha’s, here are their offensive numbers (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/OPS+ with homeruns) prior to tonight’s game:

Chris Taylor .308/.375/.547/.922/139 with 16 homers
Corey Seager .307/.399/.525/.925/141 with 19 homers
Justin Turner .348/.441/.561/1.002/162 with 15 homers
Cody Bombay Bellinger .263/.340/.609/.949/142 with 33 homers

Note that OPS+ compare’s the player’s OPS to the league’s OPS – an OPS+ of 100 is league-average.

Just for ha-ha’s again, here were the 1-2-3-4 hitters for the 1927 Bronx Bombers:

Earle Combs .356/.414/.511/.925/141 with 6 homers
Mark Koenig .285/.320/.382/.702/83 with 3 homers
Babe Ruth .356/.486/.772/1.258/225 with 60 homers
Lou Gehrig .373/.474/.765/1.240/220 with 47 homers
Yikes!  Those 3-4 hitters – who are those guys?

Now add Yasiel Puig as the best #8 hitter in the MLB.  Then add the Dodgers pitching which is leading the NL.  This is why the Dodgers have almost forgotten how to lose.

Let’s look at the Dodgers won-loss records by month for their possible best season ever:

April 14-12
May 19-9
June 21-7
July 20-3
August 7-2 (incomplete)
September ???

Here is the Dodgers’ won-loss record at home versus on the road during their Red-Hot streak:

Home 26-3
Road 20-5

You know, the Dodgers were just not satisfied with their 42-8 streak in 2013, winning 84% of 50 games.  So they had to go on their 2017 Red-Hot streak of 46-8, winning 85% of 54 games.  Oh yeah, it’s not over yet.  They are home for the next five games against the Padres (3 games) and the White Sox (2 games).  The Red-Hot streak continues…

Darvish

yu-darvish-ronald-martinez

In honor of Yu Darvish’s debut with the 2017 red-hot Dodgers, we have this song.  The song is based on Devo’s 1978 classic:  “Uncontrollable Urge”.

 

Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu
Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu

Got a surge in win streaks and it’s outta control
Got a surge don’t want to purge
And I’m losing control

Uncontrollable surge I want to tell you all about it
Got an uncontrollable surge let me, scream and shout it

I’ve got an uncontrollable surge
(He’s got an uncontrollable surge)
I’ve got an uncontrollable

It’s got style, it’s got class
So strong, I can’t pass the gas I gotta tell you all about it
I gotta scream and shout it

Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu
Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu

Got an surge in win streaks and it’s outta control now
Got an surge don’t want to purge and I’m losing con-trol
Uncontrollable surge I want to tell you all about it
Got an uncontrollable surge let me, scream and shout it

That’s right

I’ve got an uncontrollable surge
(He’s got an uncontrollable surge)
I’ve got an uncontrollable

It’s got style, it’s got class
So strong, I can’t pass the gas I gotta tell you all about it
I gotta scream and shout it

I got an uncontrollable surge I want to tell you all about it
An uncontrollable surge make me scream and shout
And I say Yu
(He’s says Yu)
And I say Yu, Yu
(He says Yu, Yu)
And I say Yu
(Yu)
And I say Yu, Yu
(Yu, Yu)

And I say Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu
Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu, Yu

 

Battle of Lefties

Tonight, we’ve got a battle of two left handed pitchers, Alex Wood versus Sean Newcomb.  Wood is arguably the Dodgers’ second best starting pitcher with a record of 12-1 and an ERA of 2.38.  Over his most recent thirteen starts, he has won eleven, lost one, and had one no-decision.  Newcomb, age 24, is in his rookie season with the Braves, having pitched nine starts with a record of 1-5, ERA of 4.50.

 

Meanwhile, carry on with the discussion of Jamie McCourt.  Here’s her house in Napa.

jamie napa house