Are you ready for a Vinny weekend?

Vin Scully has had a hell of a run.  Who else can say they worked the same job for sixty-seven years?  Who else has given this kind of joy to millions of people?  So many better writers have told the tale of Vin, I don’t know that I can do a better job.  I’ll just summarize some of Vin’s attributes that we have come to enjoy for many decades:  (1) his smooth baritone voice, (2) his story telling, (3) his impartiality, (4) his teaching fans the finer points of baseball, (5) his researching players from other teams and telling us about them, (6) his consistent excellence in play-by-play announcing [in contract to Charlie Steiner among others], (7) his reaching into our family rooms to be part of our families while we watch the game, and (8) his humility.  Vin Scully never ever irritated nor annoyed me.  I’ve enjoyed every minute that I listened to him.

Meanwhile, we’ve got some baseball to play this weekend (accompanied by Vin Scully). Scott Kazmir (10-6, 4.59 ERA) will pitch against Rockie righty Jon Gray (10-8, 4.42 ERA).  Gray last pitched against the Dodgers on August 29th in Denver, and he pitched six shutout innings giving up four hits and three walks while striking out eight Dodgers.  The Rockies won that game by a score of 8-1.

What are the chances that the Dodgers clinch the NL West this weekend?  About 1 in 3.  What are the chances that the Dodgers clinch before playing the Giants again?  About 93%.  For those interested, the math follows.

To make the math a little easier, let’s assume that the Dodgers have a 50% chance of winning each game, the Giants have a 50% chance of winning each game, and each game is independent of the others.  So each game is equivalent to a coin flip.  To clinch this weekend, we need a total of four Dodger wins or Giants losses.  There are six games.  Essentially, we have six coin flips and need heads at least four times (that is four times or five times or six times).  The chances of clinching this weekend is [6!/(6!x0!)+6!/(5!x1!)+6!/(4!x2!)]/(2^6) = 34.38%.

Similarly, there are six Dodger games and six Giant games before the Dodgers play the Giants again, for a total of twelve games.  We need a total of four Dodger wins and Giants losses to clinch.  So the probability of clinching before next Friday is [12!/(12!x0!)+12!/(11!x1!)+12!/(10!x2!)+12!(9!x3!)+12!/(8!x4!)+12!/(7!x5!)+12!/(6!x6!)
+12!/(5!x7!)+12!/4!x8!)]/(2^12)=92.70%.

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53 thoughts on “Are you ready for a Vinny weekend?

  1. Scotty was a throwin’ stones

    They was too hard to hit

    [Ohhhhhhh, yeaaaaaahhh]

    Had those Rockies singing

    Son-a-bitch.
    [Can’t believe my eyes]

    Never got a chance to sweee-ing

    Liked by 2 people

  2. Lineup

    1. Chase Utley (L) 2B
    2. Corey Seager (L) SS
    3. Justin Turner (R) 3B
    4. Adrian Gonzalez (L) 1B
    5. Yasmani Grandal (S) C
    6. Josh Reddick (L) RF
    7. Andrew Toles (L) LF
    8. Joc Pederson (L) CF
    9. Scott Kazmir (L)

    Liked by 1 person

  3. I really enjoyed the ceremony, thanks to MLB.TV. Luckily I was just looking for the game, which I thought would start up too late on MLB Extra innings. The early game on the channel was running late. Otherwise I would’ve missed it. So you can say I luck out.

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Big night for the Dodgers and fans. Looked like Vinny couldn’t wait for the ceremony to end. Kevin Costner nailed it. And the boys made everyone even happier with the win.

    I will definitely miss hearing Vin’s voice. He has been a big part of my life since 1958 and I will forever remember listening on the radio. Vin taught us all not just about the game but the people who play, coach, officiate, cover it, making sure we understood these were real people.

    I also have admired Vin for his stamina and effort all these years. I don’t know how he did it, especially the past 20 years. I know how I feel by 10:00 at night but he never sounded tired or out of sorts. Who else can say that?

    I am sorry to see him go but I am so glad he is doing it on his terms. I feel blessed that we have had him for so long, and greatful my children (and grandkids) have had him as part of their lives as well. Few people will ever have such a positive effect on so many people for so long. If ever a person was put on this earth for a reason, Vin is that person.

    Liked by 5 people

  5. We got to see the farewell on the Rockies feed and they covered it well. It doesn’t seem right, somehow,, that they actually play games without him. Players come and go, but Vinny has always been there.

    Liked by 3 people

  6. Boy! I’m still getting misty eyed looking at all the photos of last night. I may need to gargle with some deisel fuel or something to cure this.

    Thanks to crash and his Mo` Math segment. I was up late last night. Math was easy for me until I fell asleep in Algebra class. I was able to do that in my other classes and keep up. I never could figure out where the darn comma’s go in English class either. I miss NorthState. He was a good teacher and great writer.

    I really want to see them celebrate at home. I heard Vinny say it would be more fun to do it in San Francisco. But we need to catch the Nats.

    Liked by 1 person

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