HFA: Padres at Dodgers

Dodgers-Stadium-DN

In order to win home field advantage (HFA) in the National League Divisional Series (NLDS), the Dodgers need to finish with a better record than the New York Mets.  Why?  If the two teams finish with identical Won-Loss records, the first tie-breaker for HFA is the head-to-head record between the two teams.  The Dodgers lost four of seven games to the Mets this year.  These seven games all occurred in the month of July, long before the “typical pennant race” time frame.  #JulyGamesMatter

As of Friday morning, the Dodgers and the Mets have identical 89-70 Won-Loss records.  In order to win HFA in the NLDS, the Dodgers need to win one game more in their home series with the Padres, as compared to the Mets with their home series with the Nationals.  In terms of “Magic Number”, the Dodgers’ HFA Magic Number is currently four (the number of Dodger wins plus Mets losses).  A loss in Friday’s game to the Padres will severely hamper the Dodgers’ ability to obtain home field advantage in the NLDS.

In other news, Yasiel Puig is suddenly “100%”.  Does it matter?  Consider how long it took Justin Turner to get his hitting skills back in shape when he came off his injury.

Finally, a question as to the NLDS starting pitcher rotation.  Currently, Zack Greinke is scheduled for Saturday against the Padres, with Clayton Kershaw going on Sunday.  This gives the Dodgers two choices for Game 1 of the NLDS:  Kershaw on four days rest (the normal schedule), or Greinke on six days rest.  Based on Kershaw’s one-hitter in the divisional clincher against the Giants, he certainly earned the Game 1 start.  On the other hand, Greinke has been consistently very good all season.  It is a great thing to have two aces of this caliber.  I would go with Kershaw.

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80 thoughts on “HFA: Padres at Dodgers

  1. Here’s a new post we can use during the Padres series. Continue your discussion on Yasiel Puig. I agree with most of you that (a) Puig can’t possibly be playoff ready and (b) adding him to the playoff roster at this time would really screw up any “chemistry” that the players have built together during September.

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  2. If Puig is even considered for the NLDS, I better see him play every inning remaining in the season for a fair evaluation, I dont think he is being considered.
    Pitching; You start Kershaw in game one. Zach in Game 2. Anderson in Game 3. If game 4 is required, its back with Kershaw on 3 days rest ( you dont have kershaw throw too many pitches this Sunday, as like what happened in his start vs. Arizona last Thursday 81 pitches). If game 5 is necessary, then Zach will be ready on a normal 5th day start.I think Zach’s mentality likes the predictable and his normal routine. Kershaw seems like he could deal with the 3 days between starts better than Zach.
    if the Dodgers dont bring their Hitting, it wont matter who starts, we are entering the Play-Off Zone, where all the pitchers become really good and tough ( Peavey, Leake and Bumgarner) were a good warm up to the Mets intimidating starting staff.

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  3. I just discovered that a registered nurse will come give you a sponge bath for $50 if you are unable to bath yourself…Hmmmmmmmmmmm. Save some hot water for me Grandpa!!

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  4. Kiki missed a month…and he comes back on fire. Puig could, too. He’s a difference maker…not Ruggiano or SVS, no offense to either. Chemistry doesn’t win in a short series. Talent does. SVS deserves to be on the roster, though Ruggiano has outperformed him. But before we bury Puig because he’s been “said” to be a distraction to “some” players, I’ll take his fire and his incredible natural ability over the majority of these walking zombies, Donnie Baseball included.

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  5. Lineup

    Crawford LF
    Kendrick 2B
    Gonzalez 1B
    Turner 3B
    Ethier RF
    Seager SS
    Ellis C
    Hernandez CF
    Wood P

    No Puig.

    In more important news, no Vin Scully this weekend – he is out with a cold. Get well soon, Vin!

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  6. There was a lot of talk on local sports talk radio the past few days about the Dodger playoff roster with a lot of the attention on Puig. Earlier in the week there was not much hope Puig would even be ready but by the end of the week his condition may have changed for the better. I think the discussion has to be limited to only this season as to whether or not he should be on the playoff roster. He still has a lot of talent in spite of the obvious shortcomings. However, with no real games left and no opportunity to get baseball ready against major league pitching, it seems best to leave him off the roster unless the only playing time he might get would be as a pinch runner. Teams have done this, willing to sacrifice a roster spot for a player with speed for those occasions when a stolen base or extra speed can win a game. Would the Dodgers be willing to do that? At the moment, Scot Van Slyke may not be available so maybe this would allow a spot for Puig. We will just have to wait and see.

    I would pitch Kershaw first game. I might hesitate to rush him back since that has not worked in the past but with the season on the line, I probably would do it anyway.

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    • Puig is a terrible be stealer, so if pinch running is in the mix for him, its strictly the speed of going from second to home. Even first to third is questionable given his baseball acumen. He hasn’t hit crap all year and never has been any good coming off the bench to PH. Given his current status and no time to get ML ready against a better than good pitching staff, I don’t know why they’d want to add him to the roster. If SVS can’t go though I’d rather have Puig than Heisey.

      Kahli, I’d give Puig every opportunity to prove he belongs next ST, but at some point they’re going to have to pull the plug if he can’t show more improvement. Maybe its the current coaching staff, whom I think have totally fucked up Joc, that are at fault, but Puig also doesn’t strike me as being very coachable.

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  7. According to the bleacher report, Puig is in right and batting 6th tonight. Since SVS is out, Puig may slide onto the ps roster. On the surface I don’t know if I would do that, but he’d be better than just about all the alternatives and the staff is a lot closer to the situation than I am. So…I wish him well. If he’s succeeding, chances are the Dodgers are too.

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  8. Pop the Top…

    I’m kick’n the evening off with my first drink since Valentines Day, (12 pack Bud-Light) I doubt I drink more than 4, along with the Mets, before the Dodgers….oh and the fiesta platter from the local Mexican place.

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  9. A big thank you to the Nats, and a good job taking advantage of it by the boys. HFA is a big deal. Not only for the Mets series, but should they beat the Mets and one of the wild cards beat the Cards, that’s also HFA in the NLDS.

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  10. I’ll be taking in the Met’s final home game with my daughter as usual today. Thanks to Greinke and the Dodgers I won’t be worried about the outcomes today. It’ll be cold out there but we’ll bundle up. Someone is trying to get postseason tickets for us for one game next week but I’m still waiting for a call back.

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  11. Guess I have to disagree with most on who starts game one in the NLDS. I say let Zach have the honors. He’s earned it. Nothing personal against Kershaw. I’m still on the fence on who starts game three. Anderson & Wood both have done well recently.
    Just win baby!!!

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  12. Thanks to the Nats for helping the Dodgers get home field advantage but the boys did their part as well. I will be there on Friday for game one. I expect Kershaw to start that game and it has nothing to do with which pitcher deserves it or not. Kershaw seems better suited to pitch on shorter rest than Zach although we all know that has not worked well for the Dodgers in past playoffs. Hopefully the offense will take some of the pressure off the pitching but we probably should not expect that to happen.

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  13. Boys did a nice job of finishing the season. Even today’s ST type game had a better feel to it. I think Hatcher has solved the set-up man problem. Seager is sure impressive with the bat AND glove. I think he’s the epitome of playing the game the right way. Be nice if he could rub off on Puig.

    Congrats to Dee Gordon for winning the batting title.

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  14. Dodgers finish 92-70…here’s what we all said at the end of March:

    D4 100-62
    Crash 96-66
    32and53 95-67
    Sparkle 95-67
    Vl4 94-68
    Koufax 94-68
    Kahli 93-69
    JHall 93-69
    Zona 93-69
    Lbirken 92-70
    Tru 92-70
    OBF 91-71
    Enchanted 90-72
    Griz 89-73
    Bear 88-74

    lbirk and Tru!!!!!!!!!!

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  15. Buehrle is retiring and almost had 15 straight years of pitching 200+ innings, always pitched 30+ games but he wasn’t much of a strikeout pitcher and had 3 season with less than 100 k’s and not more then 165 k’s.

    http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/6525/

    Gibbons had Buehrle starting again that twice in the past 3 days to get him to that magic 200 innings and it cost them HF advantage probably wasn’t the right move and should had probably let him pitch 2 innings in relieve.

    Buehrle couldn’t get it done in his 2/3 of an inning of work against the Rays in Sunday’s regular season finale, allowing eight runs (none earned) on five hits.

    Maybe this is just the veteran southpaw’s way of working the kinks out before postseason play begins. Among the highlights/lowlights during his brief time on the mound, a bases loaded walk to Tim Beckham and a grand slam to Joey Butler. All of this mayhem and not a single run counted against Buehrle’s ERA, thanks to a fielding error by Edwin Encarnacion that compounded the whole mess. Buehrle’s ERA actually dropped in the contest. Baseball is a strange sport. With the short start under his belt, the 36-year-old finishes out the 2015 season with a 3.81 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 91/33 K/BB ratio across 198 2/3 innings.

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  16. It’s good to have a few night’s off before we get back in the swing of things. BTW I’m rooting for the Yankees tomorrow, if they make it to the World Series and the Dodgers are in it, I’ll make a big effort to get to one of the games. I could’ve gotten tickets to the 1981 series but I felt I’d still rather watch it on T.V. Now I regret not going.

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