September Swoon

SeptSwoon

Scenario:  Dodgers Drop the Division

How is this going to happen?  How is it not going to happen?  Within just days ago, many of the popular blogs and media basically ASSUMED that the regular season was over, and the Dodgers were already guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.

Many of those of us who frequently comment on this blog do not agree.  After last night’s fiasco, I for one believe the Dodgers will give away the division and will not go to the playoffs this year.  My belief has only been increased by the fact that Donald Zachary Greinke will not be pitching tonight.

Let’s play through this scenario.  How is it possible that the Dodgers blow their lead, which is currently six games over the Giants?  Well, just three games ago, the Dodgers had an eight and a half game lead.  Here is the scenario game by game.  You tell me how realistic it is.

Sept 23rd – Greinke scratched, either Wieland starts or it’s a bullpen game.  In either scenario, the bullpen gives up at least four runs and the Dodgers offense continues to be anemic.  We lose.  Peavy and the Giants beat Cashner and the Padres.  Magic Number is 7, while our lead drops to five games.  Panic time yet?

Sept 24th – Kershaw starts against Patrick Corbin, a lefty with a 2.99 ERA.  We all know how badly we perform against lefties.  This game almost has to feature Chris Heisey and Alex Guerrero.  After Guerrero’s mis-play of a pop-up last night, we all cringe whenever he is on the field.  But he’s not the only Dodger to make mental mistakes as of late.  With Kershaw starting, this game should be a toss-up, but let’s say we lose.  That’s not a nightmare.  It’s quite probable.  Meanwhile, Bumgarner gets an easy victory over the Padres.  Magic #7, Lead 4 games.  Panic!!!

Sept 25th – Dodgers travel to Coors Field, which has in the past been a place where Dodgers go to get injured.  Bolsinger pitches against David Hale (6.32 ERA).  Bolsinger keeps it in the park, somehow we have no injuries, and get the win.  Sonny Gray and the A’s beat Mike Leake and the Giants.  Magic #5, Lead 5 games.  All is right in the world.

Sept 26th – Brett Anderson against Kyle Kendrick (6+ ERA).  Anderson is getting weary late in the year, gets shelled early, gives the ball to the bullpen.  We lose.  Tim Hudson and the Giants beat Barry Zito (18.00 ERA – hey, he should be a Dodger!) and the A’s.  Magic #5, Lead 4 games.  Panic!!

Sept 27th – Alex Wood has a good game and beats the Rockies.  Chris Heston beats the A’s with a two-hitter.  Magic #4, Lead 4 games.  You all know what comes next.

Sept 28th – Dodgers travel to AT&T Park.  Greinke once again is unable to start against Peavy.  Dodgers lose.  Magic #4, Lead 3 games.

Sept 29th – Kershaw vs. Bumgarner – Mattingly trots out his all-righty lineup.  Bumgarner pulls through, he wants a fourth WS ring.  Magic #4, Lead 2 games

Sept 30th – Bolsinger vs. Leake – Bolsinger only goes through the lineup twice.  Then in comes the bullpen.  Dodgers lose.  Magic #4, Lead 1 game.  Panic!!

Oct 1st – Anderson vs. Hudson.  Anderson has run out of gas.  Dodgers lose.  Magic #4, Dodgers tied with Giants for first place.

Oct 2nd – Padres come to Dodger Stadium.  Wood vs. James Shields.  Shields uses his wily veteran-ness to prevail over Wood.  Chris Heston and the Giants beat Jon Gray (5.53 ERA, he’s no Sonny) and the Rockies.  Magic #4, Giants lead is one game.  Dodgers need everything to go right over the next two days to win the division outright.

Oct 3rd – Greinke starts, but falters due to rust.  Dodgers lose.  Peavy and the Giants beat the Rockies.  The Giants clinch the division title.  The Giants party, then begin preparation to meet the Mets in the playoffs.

Oct 4th – Kershaw scheduled to start, but it just doesn’t matter anymore.  Dodgers win, Giants lose, Giants win the division by one game.


Over the last twelve days, the Dodgers record is 3-9.  The Giants record is 10-2.  When you remove the head-to-head Dodgers-Giants four game series, the records are 3-5 for the Dodgers and 6-2 for the Giants.  That’s all it takes.  Actually, the Dodgers could go 4-4 while the Giants go 6-2 and the Dodgers could lose in a one game playoff to the Giants.

Is it unrealistic to believe that the Dodgers could drop all four games to the Giants, and go 4-4 (.500 ball!) during the other eight games?  I would say it is quite realistic.  In fact, I’ve just convinced myself that it will happen.  The injuries are not going away.  Jim Johnson is not suddenly going to go lights out in the late innings.  Brett Anderson is not going to get a stronger arm in the last two weeks.  Justin Turner is not going to have a healed knee and begin hitting again.  Yasmani Grandal’s shoulder is not going to be “all better” and he starts hitting like he did in June.  Jimmy Rollins is not going suddenly start hitting better than he has all year. Joc Pederson is not going to hit five home runs in twelve games.  Neither is Alex Guerrero.  Andre Ethier will not be starting against left-handed pitchers (although we can all hope).  Kike Hernandez is not going to save the Dodgers.  Clayton Kershaw cannot start all twelve games.  Kenley Jansen cannot pitch all the bullpen innings.  Corey Seager cannot be listed in the lineup nine times for every game.

We’re doomed!

[Editors’ note:  This is not sarcasm, this has been written from the heart.  A blue heart.]

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95 thoughts on “September Swoon

  1. If the above scenario comes true, I only wish for one addition to the October 4th game end –
    The whole front office does a group jump off the highest part of Dodger Stadium and right onto Donnie.
    Then we all say, “Wait till next season!”

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  2. Crash: This post is blasphemy. As a Dodgers fan for life, I cannot conceive how a fan, would show how the Dodgers fail, If the Dodgers fail., a script that that would show the ineptness of how the Dodgers would really lose the division could not be written previously to that demise. We would all have to see it.
    and something Like AG’s missed pop-up last night would be a part of it.
    Dodgers will be in the 2015 play-offs. Lets have some positive reinforcement now, because a couple of games from now the magic number will be lowered and the division lead increased.
    Yes Last night was a miserable game, which leads a dismissive attitude; yep you put a lot of work in to this Post, and you are certainly entitled to your opinion. Don’t worry I won’t tell Uncle Tommy on you!!
    I would like Uncle Tommy to go for a visit to the club house and kick some butt! GO Dodgers!

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    • Koufax: I appreciate your comment that my post is blasphemy. You may be right. Perhaps I should have made it a comment (and shortened it).

      I, too, would love for Tommy to go kick some butt in the clubhouse. The team has not been playing solid fundamental baseball over the past three games.

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      • P.S. I would love to be wrong. Hopefully, the Dodgers do go to the playoffs. The next two games (tonight and tomorrow afternoon) will be crucial. I hope you are right about the Giants being beat up.

        The Giants have won seven of their last ten games. However, they have been playing the Padres, the Reds, and the D-Backs.

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  3. I think the Dodgers will be in…only because the Gnats are more beat up, physically, and their starting pitching is not very good beyond the Bummer. That said, the Dodgers will not see the WS, but may do well enough (beating Mets) to insure Donnie’s return. Ughhh. But I’m more worried about Vinny’s final season than I am with whether this mish-mash team can go all the way–because they can’t. Not with this pitching staff.

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  4. I believe the boys have to do better in coming together as a team. We’ve seen some of the younger guys such as Peraza, Schebler and especially Seager rise to an occasion. The new guy Ruggiano has even shown his eagerness to become part of a winning team, with a winning mind-set, through his outstanding execution of skills in August and early September. Ethier, Ruge and Seager have set the bar in the past 30 days all hitting over .300. Guys like SVS and Crawford were contributing nicely as well, both being above .250. Gonzalez, Utley, Kendrick, Grandal, Ellis, and Pederson have to do more. In order to become successful this time of year, you need good pitching and we struggle in this area. The bullpen has potential – We’ve seen good games from a number of guys, yet none have displayed any type of consistency….The Boy’s haven’t shown any real promise in a long while and yes, that instills a bit of concern in my mind as well.

    I haven’t jumped ship though… So don’t call me crazy just yet

    Win as a team, or go home alone.
    .
    Here’s my vote for win as a team…
    .
    Rally Bums Record: (W 10 – L 8) .556 W%

    ( Let’s Go Dodgers, Let’s Go!! )

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  5. We all want the Dodgers to win. There is much improvement to be had, and losing 4-5, hope it stops; is not a place to be in the last 12 games, gotta develop momentum, in each game, in each series, till the play-offs begin ,The Dodgers need to start tonight, even with Frias, back him up and do it again tomorrow, then The Dodgers will try to do something we have not accomplished all year: Win in SF. GO Dodgers!

    Liked by 1 person

  6. “Chase Anderson will return to the rotation on Wednesday against the Dodgers. Anderson was skipped the last time through the rotation after getting blasted in his previous two starts.”

    We shall see………………………..

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  7. I think they’ll make it. I can’t believe they would choke that badly. Possible? Yeah, but I think they will make it. We can only hope they can turn up the heat and go into the playoffs hot. We’ll know before long.

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  8. That win was hugely important. Chase Utley teamed up with Jimmy Rollins to chase the go-ahead run across the plate. Then Corey Seager(!!!) added two crucial insurance runs with his home run. Prior to the eighth inning, the offense was its usual anemic self. On top of everything, the Pods came through, scoring, scoring, and scoring in the late innings to beat the Gnats.

    I am very happy that I was wrong about this game.

    Next up – another crucial game, which features what could be Kershaw’s last start of regular season 2015 against a non-Giants team. We really need to win today.

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  9. That kid for the Snakes was mighty good. Thank goodness we got to their bullpen. I really liked the seager at 3rd, J-roll at SS and Utley at 2nd Infield. It leaves kendrick out though, and with those infield veterans and Seager, do we now have congestion in the infield as to who plays where. I dont know if Donnie can juggle the OF roles and now Infield roles, not to mention the Bull pen, which I give many kudos for the job the BP did last night.
    Today’s game will be tough

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    • D-Backs starting pitcher Patrick Corbin is a lefty (ugh), gives up hits, but not walks. He’s good, but not as good as Kershaw. The obvious problem is that our hitters have had little success against left-handed pitchers.

      We haven’t seen the lineup yet. Hopefully that’s because someone is trying to convince Donnie to start Ethier rather than Heisey. I’d also like to see Rollins at ss and Seager at 3b, rather than Seager at ss and Guerrero at 3b. Anything to keep Guerrero off the field.

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    • Corey Seager is hot, because he plays every game. He just doesn’t know where he will be in the line up.

      Andre Ethier should be playing most games, with just a rest day once a week to keep him healthy. Same for Adrian Gonzalez.

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    • Huh????

      Where is Corey Seager, the best hitter on the team?

      If Scott Schebler can start against a lefty, why can’t Andre Ethier?

      Why is Chris Heisey still on this team?

      Justin Turner better get a couple hits.

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  10. Why do I feel like today’s game is so crucial? Because I really, really want to clinch the division before the Dodgers visit San Francisco. The Dodgers record in San Francisco this year is 0-6. The TV advertising in the Bay Area is still whipping up the Giants’ fans enthusiasm for a potential division title.

    Here’s a lineup that I would rather the Dodgers be using today (if Adrian Gonzalez really needs the rest):

    Ruggiano lf
    Seager ss
    Turner 3b
    Van Slyke 1b
    Kendrick 2b
    Ethier rf
    Ellis c
    Pederson cf
    Kershaw p

    Put Seager in there for his hot bat. Put Ethier in there for his reliable bat. Put Pederson in there for the defense. Keep Heisey far away from the playing field.

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          • My buddy and I went drinking in SF one evening and somehow we became separated. So, I decided to head home anyway I could. I had over a grand in my billfold, but was unable, or, to drunk to hail a cab. I then seen a truck driver getting into his rig and asked him for a ride home…which was about 60 miles North in Santa Rosa. He alerted the concierge at a free to drunks only, hotel, inside the city and they sent over a car to pick me up. A black and white car which carried the companies blue and gold, star logo, on the side of the door. They not only dropped me off at the entrance to the local hostel, but were so kind, as to escort me inside as well. This was my first trip to the famed city next to the bay, so making connections early was high on my bucket list. What wasn’t on my bucket list, was the dude wearing bright pink short shorts made of nylon and his multi-colored muscle shirt. They secured us to the same bar in the foyer for a bit…I guess, so I wouldn’t get lost again? Only thing was, he didn’t care for this establishment and made his point of view known, over and over at a decibel similar to a screaming toddler. Needless to say, they sent some guys wearing riot gear over to calm him down by beating the nonsense out of him. I hid under the bench the best I could while they discussed the hostel rules. He agreed to abide by them afterwards. About this time my room was ready, so, I was unsecured from the bar attached to the wall and sent off to dreamland. When I arose at about 8 am the next morning they escorted me out a door that lead to about a thousand Chinese people walking up and down the sidewalk. Talk about being clueless and hungover!! I thought oh crap, I hope a grand will be enough money to get me back across the ocean and home again. How the heck did I end up here?

            Liked by 1 person

  11. Im going crazy trying to figure donnie out with these line ups, if it were sent by FAZ then I might agree to some sabremetrics they use, but really a bit of intuition is needed, and that says Seagar is Hot, Heisey is not, and I must say DRE did not look good last not, but so did everybody else except Utley, who also is not playing. But we need Dre to get regular play. All the games are important till the Dodgers clinch.
    And BTW I am all for Clinching in SF, Love to see that but I will take it earlier

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  12. Psst….don’t tell Donnie, but even though Ethier is hitting a paltry .195 against lefties, Heisey is hitting even worse at .139. And file this stat under “why Ethier probably hates Donnie Baseball and will never invite him to dinner:” Ethier has a hefty 41 ABs vs. lefties this year. What the hell kind of sample size is that for Donnie to consistently bench him?

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  13. would of seager been a nice alternative to hit as either SS or 3rd, but Im sure Donnie thinks he is tired, after hitting an HR last night and the early game today.

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    • He’s 21 years old – he’s got lots of energy. I think Donnie wanted to get Rollins back in the swing of things. Donnie messed up. Both of last night’s hot hitters (Utley and Seager) are sitting on the bench today.

      Kershaw didn’t have a problem hitting against the lefty.

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  14. yes that right, there use to be an edit button for those last look changes. Did I see Goldschmidt strike out! wow maybe the momentum on this game is switching to Blue.

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    • By limiting the admin privileges and editing options that came with it, to a certain few…we have cut down on the chance of being censored again. I am almost certain the censorship problems were coming from one of us…if that person cares to divulge themselves…we could probably work around this new set up somehow. I apologize for any inconvenience as I believe this blog belongs to us all and in all fairness should be treated as such.

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  15. Son of a gun. Heisey with the home run, then Guerrero follows with a double. Donnie for sure will put them both on the playoff roster now.

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  16. Dre says “take that, Donnie” , Just weirdness, Donnie takes out the guy who hit the Grand slam, of course I really dodnt think Heisey should be in, but after what he did I guess he gets the Donnie mark of excellence by not playing

    Liked by 1 person

  17. Jansen had a bit of trouble getting that third strike punch out- other than that great BP- Kersh gets the W, and hopefully Jansen will get a rest, because the Dodgers have such big leads at Coors come the 9th inning. Now for the Gnats to lose and other fantasies I have…………..puff!

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  18. Kershaw didn’t want to come out, to say the least, but it worked out. I’ve also got to wonder whose bull pen that was out there today. Now would be a great time to keep putting up zeroes.

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  19. Wow, first time I have had a chance to look at the most current theme and threads and while I understand it, I am a bit bummed by the negativity of the theme itself. It is ok to discuss what has happened but to assume that bad things will continue to happen is just not my style. I do sometimes fall into it but then games like last night and today help me snap out of it. The magic number is now 4 (love the Duke Snider photo above) so it would seem the Dodgers have found a way to turn the negatives into a positive. Believe me, I was at the game today and when I saw Heisey playing and all the switches Donnie made to make sure most of the lefties never faced a lefty pitcher, even I felt a bit of a letdown. Then Heisey hits the most improbable grandslam home run and the bullpen holds the D’backs scoreless and all is good. Kahli says it all with his comment above.

    Keep the faith.

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  20. Though I read this post after winning the last two games, I have to admit that the thought of the Dodgers blowing their lead never entered my mind while they were still in the losing streak. This year’s PVL group of Rollins, Utley and Kendricks seem like they can produce under pressure. I think they will win the division with a few games to spare.

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    • I think most everyone believes and always has, that the Dodgers would eventually win the division. It’s just fun to dog them a bit when they’re playing so horrible. Especially with a mad scientist such as Mattingly tinkering away at the helm.

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  21. As I usually do, I don’t stay up for the Giant game after the Dodgers finish an early game, unless we’re going for the clincher. I take advantage of an early night sleep. Needless to say, it was a great feeling, this morning, to find that the Giants lost moving the magic# to 3.

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